A Risk Manifesto: Decisions in the Face of Material Events Hardcover – June 13, 2026

Geopolitical realignment, climate disruption, demographic shifts, and technological transformation present risks with no historical precedent. Pension systems are breaking under the weight of aging populations. Semiconductor production concentrates in a single geopolitical flashpoint. AI is reshaping everything from energy demand to the future of work to the waging of war.These are not future risks. They exist now. Yet traditional models cannot see them; historical market returns offer no guidance. Worse, they create false confidence that leaves institutions exposed when transformation strikes.This open access book presents a re-conception of how we think about and manage risk. Drawing on the author's experience as chief risk officer at major financial institutions, it demonstrates that risk cannot be reduced to statistics or confined to financial markets. It emerges from physical structure and unfolds through dynamics that cannot be reduced to equations.The transformation occurs across five dimensions:Financial → PhysicalMaterial constraints drive markets, not the reverse.Statistical → StructuralDependencies matter more than correlations.Static → DynamicSystems adapt as participants respond to them.Mechanical → HumanInterpretation, reflexivity, and contingency shape outcomes.Numbers → NarrativesDecisions happen in conversations, not spreadsheets.Simple, adaptive rules outperform sophisticated optimization. Narrative reasoning—whether through discussion, scenario analysis, or tools like large language models—produces more actionable intelligence than mathematical models when confronting unprecedented change.This book is essential reading for chief risk officers, asset allocators, family offices, policymakers and anyone responsible for navigating risks that are reshaping economies and societies. Read more